Chapter 27
Forecasts
27.21.1 Example
The following example is for Salt Lake City, Utah:
UXUS97 KSLC 091233 SRGSLC Soaring Forecast National Weather Service Salt Lake City, Utah 0633 MDT Tuesday, July 9, 2019 This forecast is for Tuesday, July 9, 2019: If the trigger temperature of 81.4 F/27.4 C is reached...then Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent Maximum rate of lift........................ 1239 ft/min (6.3 m/s) Maximum height of thermals.................. 17411 ft MSL (13185 ft AGL) Forecast maximum temperature................... 88.0 F/31.6 C Time of trigger temperature.................... 1200 MDT Time of overdevelopment........................ None Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10097 ft MSL (5872 ft AGL) Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 07/10.... Excellent Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available Remarks... Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:05:02 / 21:01:07 MDT Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr. 56 min 5 sec (896 min 5 sec) Altitude of sun at 13:33:04 MDT... 70.27 degrees Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 07/09/2019 at 0600 MDT Freezing level.................. 13975 ft MSL (9749 ft AGL) Convective condensation level... 15400 ft MSL (11174 ft AGL) Lifted condensation level....... 16064 ft MSL (11838 ft AGL) Lifted index.................... -0.7 K index......................... +19.1 This product is issued once per day by approximately 0600 MST/0700 MDT (1300 UTC). This product is not continuously monitored nor updated after the initial issuance. The information contained herein is based on the 1200 UTC rawinsonde observation at the Salt Lake City, Utah International Airport and/or numerical weather prediction model data representative of the airport. These data may not be representative of other areas along the Wasatch Front. Erroneous data such as these should not be used. The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject to change without prior notice.
27.22 Balloon Forecast
Select NWS WFOs issue balloon forecasts. These are automated forecasts primarily derived from the radiosonde observation or model-generated soundings.
The content and format of balloon forecasts vary with the NWS WFO providing the forecast, based on the needs of their ballooning community. It is beyond the scope of this handbook to describe all of the many variations of balloon forecasts and their content. Balloon pilots should consult with the NWS WFO in their area for more information.
27.22.1 Example
The following example is for St. Louis, Missouri:
SXUS43 KLSX 090850 RECSTL Morning Hot Air Balloon Forecast National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 350 AM CDT Tue Jul 9, 2019 ...HERE IS THE MORNING HOT AIR BALLOON FORECAST FOR THE SAINT LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA... .THIS MORNING... Sunrise: 545 AM. Surface Wind Forecast: 6 AM...110/05 mph. 8 AM...120/05 mph. Latest Geostrophic Wind: 1 AM...160/15 mph. Boundary Layer Wind: 7 AM...120/06 mph. 10 AM...160/12 mph. NWS Doppler Winds (at 0334 AM): 1000ft...130/15 mph. 2000ft...150/22 mph. 3000ft...160/20 mph. Surface Lifted Index: 7 AM...+3. 10 AM...-1. Density Altitude: 6 AM...1708 FT. 8 AM...1948 FT. Additional Weather Info: Slight chance of thunderstorms. .OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING... Sunset: 829 PM. Weather: Chance of thunderstorms. Surface Wind: 6 PM...150/07 mph. 8 PM...150/06 mph. Boundary Wind: 4 PM...160/14 mph. 7 PM...160/08 mph. This forecast is not routinely updated or amended outside of scheduled issuances. && This forecast is also available at phone number 636-441-8467 ext. 5. $$ TES