Chapter 3
Identifying Hazards & Associated Risks
A low-pressure system with a trailing cold front is moving south into northwest Colorado. The front is triggering severe convective activity as it collides with moist air in the southwest. Low ceilings and poor visibility are widespread behind the front, with mountain obscuration and icing in clouds above 8,000 feet. The weather in Durango should remain good VFR on Monday, but change to IMC early Tuesday morning as the weather system slowly moves southeast.
Data
Tricia needs to organize, consider, and evaluate all the information.
Pilot and Passengers
The pilot and passenger data is as follows:
- Current under 14 CFR part 61 for VFR and IFR
- Last instrument time logged four months ago
- Tricia's weight is 130 pounds, the Smiths weigh 340 pounds together
- Tricia has 40 pounds of baggage, the Smiths have 80 pounds
Aircraft
The aircraft data is as follows:
- Not certificated for flight in known icing conditions
- Empty weight: 1903 pounds, Maximum gross weight 2,740 pounds
- Luggage compartment carries 120 pounds
- Current fuel 25 gallons (150 pounds) Fuel capacity 64 gallons (384 pounds)
- Average fuel consumption at 10,000 feet: 8.6 gallons per hour
- Average true airspeed at 10,000 feet: 152 knots
- Calculated takeoff distance at 25º C, 6,700 feet pressure altitude, no wind, and 2,740 pounds: 4,700 feet over a 50-foot obstacle
- Calculated takeoff distance at 25º C, 6,700 feet pressure altitude, no wind, and 2,500 pounds: 3,600 feet over a 50-foot obstacle
Environment
The following is in addition to weather data mentioned earlier:
- Temperatures at Animas Air Park (00C): 25º C mornings, 35º C afternoons, calm winds
- California weather forecast: Good VFR except morning fog on the coast
- Arizona weather forecast: Good VFR weather on Monday, marginal VFR Tuesday
Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis
Tricia decides to begin her risk analysis by identifying the potential hazards and associated risks for the flight to Santa Rosa, using the PAVE checklist. The various hazards and risks may overlap in more than one checklist category, but she wants to identify all the hazards and risks and may consolidate them later in the process.
Pilot
- She is IFR current, but it has been four months since her last proficiency event. This hazard could increase the risk of loss of control in IMC.
- If she consumes alcohol, she needs to allow for a minimum of eight hours prior to the planned departure on Tuesday to be legal. She also needs to be free from any aftereffects from alcohol, which could be magnified by the altitude and result in dehydration. This hazard could increase errors.
- She has been going to bed late and getting up early in Durango. This fatigue hazard could increase the risk of making errors.
Aircraft
- She is concerned about the range/payload trade-off for her airplane. Reducing the range by trading fuel weight for payload could increase the risk of fuel exhaustion.
- Tricia also knows that her aircraft is not approved for flight in known icing conditions and that an icing encounter could lead to loss of control.
- She is concerned about the takeoff from Animas Air Park at gross weight, considering the runway length. This potential hazard could create a risk for an overrun or stall after takeoff. Her personal minimums include a 20 percent additional margin over calculated runway takeoff distance.
Environment
- The weather system moving in from northwest Colorado is the main environmental hazard affecting the flight to Santa Rosa. The presence of both convection and icing could increase the risk of loss of control, or if attempting to stay underneath the clouds in VFR, the risk of CFIT.
- The high, rough terrain in this part of the southwest United States presents a hazard on the route to Santa Rosa. This requires relatively high cruising altitudes which may approach the performance limits of her airplane.
- The departure airport has no ATC services, although fuel is available. ATC may limit the altitude selection en route, which could limit an escape from icing conditions.