Chapter 27
Forecasts
This turbulence product will continue to evolve over the coming years with increased model resolutions, additional horizontal layers, and improvements to the algorithms and/or data sets used to produce the product. Users can find additional information on these products and any changes on the AWC’s “Turbulence” web page.
The GTG product suite is issued and updated every hour by the AWC and is available on the AWC’s website and other sources.
27.15 Cloud Tops
The Cloud Tops product is one of the products transmitted through the FIS-B. This product uses HRRR model data, which currently provides a one- and two-hour forecast of the altitude of cloud tops and the cloud amounts. The FIS-B data source receives the cloud tops data from this model. The HRRR model data is updated hourly and the transmission interval occurs every 15 minutes.
This product is only currently available for the CONUS.
27.16 Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics (MOS) Program (LAMP)
The NWS has a long history of developing and using statistical analysis of historical and model weather data to produce forecast guidance for forecasters, which is known as MOS.
The LAMP system was developed to provide aviation forecast guidance. LAMP is designed to frequently update the central MOS product suite primarily by incorporating the most recent observational data. The guidance is available at over 2,000 stations in the CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. The products are updated hourly and valid over a 25-hour period.
The LAMP products are derived from a statistical model program that provides specific-point forecast guidance for select weather elements (e.g., precipitation, temperature, wind, visibility, ceiling height, sky cover). LAMP aviation weather products are provided in both graphical and coded text format and are currently generated for more than 2,000 airports in the CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.
The LAMP product may be used for destination forecast planning by the General Aviation (GA) community. Additionally, while LAMP is one product that can be used for destination forecast planning, it isn’t the sole means by which someone can conduct destination forecast planning.
27.16.1 Alaska Aviation Guidance (AAG) Weather Product
The AAG is a completely automated product designed to provide a short-term projection of weather conditions at select locations based off the LAMP. The goal of this product is to provide additional aviation guidance to Alaska airports that have AWOS or ASOS observations, but do not have TAFs.
The AAG is a decoded plain language forecast valid for six hours and updated hourly.
Refer to the FAA’s Information for Operators (InFO) 20002, Use of the Experimental Alaskan Aviation Guidance (AAG) Weather Product, dated March 25, 2020, for additional information and use of the AAG.
27.16.1.1 AAG Example
Guidance for: PXXX (Someplace, AK) issued at 0900 UTC 12 Jun 2019 Forecast period: 0900 to 1000 UTC 12 June 2019 Forecast type: FROM: standard forecast or significant change Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 knots; 9.3 m/s) gusting to 28 MPH (24 knots; 12.3 m/s) Visibility: 2.00 SM (3.22 km) Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL Weather: -RA BR (light rain, mist)
27.17 Additional Products for Convection
This section will describe the following additional thunderstorm forecast products produced by the NWS that are of interest to aviation users:
- Convective Outlook,
- TCF, and
- ECFP.